Willy Woo, on-chain Bitcoin analyst and writer of “The Bitcoin Forecast,” a market intelligence newsletter, discusses how the Bitcoin markets have been changing amidst what may be a forthcoming ebbing of derivatives exchanges and a revival of the importance of spot exchanges. In this episode, he covers:
- what the PayPal news means when there are currently only 23.4 million holders on chain, and only 101 million active unique accounts at centralized exchanges
- why “old hands” in Bitcoin have been changing their behaviors recently, selling at bottoms, rather than tops
- how derivatives exchanges have influenced Bitcoin price action
- why price moves in Bitcoin are likely to be less volatile going forward
- how he’s detecting the purchase of Bitcoin off spot exchanges by whales and corporate treasuries
- how these shifts are affecting crypto infrastructure players
- how the price of Bitcoin moves for every dollar invested and what his projection is based on that
- why, as the price of BTC rises, he’s currently seeing HODLers holding tighter than ever
- by when he believes we’ll see sovereign wealth funds investing in Bitcoin
- by when he says we’ll see a $50,000 Bitcoin
- why the Bitcoin NVT ratio indicates it’s an “extremely great time to buy Bitcoin”
- why he doesn’t focus much on ether, how he thinks it will perform under Ethereum 2.0 and why things could change if Ethereum Improvement Proposal 1559 is implemented and transaction fees end up being burned
Thank you to our sponsor!
Episode links:
Willy Woo: https://twitter.com/woonomic
The Bitcoin Forecast: https://willywoo.substack.com
His charts and models: http://charts.woobull.com
Willy’s tweet about dormancy:
Dormancy is a measure of "old hands selling out". It's interesting to see old hands reliably sold tops until this present cycle.
They sold the #bitcoin bottom at $3-$4k, they are selling right now. pic.twitter.com/ElpXemBSMi
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) October 19, 2020
Willy on how coins on spot exchanges are dropping:
It's even more exaggerated with global exchanges. pic.twitter.com/0PaLT6eqO8
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) October 7, 2020
Willy on NVT ratio:
NVT Ratio, measures Bitcoin's ratio of investor activity to capitalization. I first described it as Bitcoin's equivalent of a PE Ratio.
Presently NVT is at undervaluation levels equivalent to the COVID19 white swan price bottom. Very bullish. pic.twitter.com/kvE1u7QABV
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) October 13, 2020
Willy on ETH:
This is ETH vs BTC in Sharpe Ratio over a 4yr full macro cycle HODL (i.e. no timing games).
Sharpe Ratio = risk adjusted returns
The length of ETH's backtrace obviously shows how untested it is as an asset bucket. Also note it under performs BTC two thirds of its short history. pic.twitter.com/Yk2XPSX6RM
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) October 5, 2020
Link to the News Recap
https://unchainedpodcast.com/heres-how-bitcoin-gets-to-50000/